US dollar to British pound, from the ECB reference rate of Friday 6 November, re-anchored to the live market six times each working day.
Anchored to the live market. The next fix starts from the live USD to GBP rate of £0.7491 at 22:42 CET, not from the last fix. The ECB fixes at 14:15 CET, so the range covers only the move still to come, about 11% less error than assuming no change at this time of day. Refreshed six times each working day.
GBP to USD is forecast at $1.3350 for Mon 9 Nov. See the GBP to USD forecast
Measured on the last three years of daily fixes, refreshed with every run.
Chance each fix beats the latest rate of £0.7471. A higher rate means more GBP for every USD you convert. Model estimates, not promises.
Next fix forecasts roughly tie with a "no change" guess. Five sessions out they roughly tie, and the range caught 79% of outcomes against an 80% target.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | 0.7430 | 0.7471 | 0.00412 | Outside |
| Thu 5 Nov | 0.7408 | 0.7430 | 0.00224 | Inside |
| Wed 4 Nov | 0.7457 | 0.7408 | 0.00492 | Outside |
| Tue 3 Nov | 0.7452 | 0.7457 | 0.00048 | Inside |
| Mon 2 Nov | 0.7463 | 0.7452 | 0.00114 | Inside |
| Fri 30 Oct | 0.7509 | 0.7463 | 0.00460 | Outside |
Set a level and we'll tell you on the day the reference rate crosses it.
One US dollar bought as little as £0.7323 on Fri 21 Aug and as much as £0.7599 on Thu 25 Jun, a swing of 3.7%. On a $10,000 transfer, that gap is worth about £276.
Our forecast for Monday 9 November is £0.7491 per US dollar, with an 80% range of £0.7463 to £0.7519. The latest ECB reference rate was £0.7471 on Friday 6 November.
The five session path drifts up to £0.7491 by Friday 13 November, a change well inside the normal range, so treat it as steady. On this pair, five session forecasts currently roughly tie with a simple no change guess.
Monday 9 November has the best modelled chance of beating the latest fix, about 81%. That is an estimate from our calibrated ranges, not a promise.
Across 990 next fix forecasts the average miss was 0.00259, against 0.00259 for assuming no change, and the real rate landed inside our range 80% of the time.
The next fix starts from the latest market rate: before the fix we anchor to the live rate, after it to the fix itself. A drift is added only when the last 250 sessions show a statistically strong trend, which matters for crawling currencies like the lira and not for USD to GBP right now. The range comes from a volatility model that reacts to recent swings, calibrated so 8 in 10 outcomes land inside it. Nothing about the direction is guessed: on daily data no model we tested beats the market's own price, and we publish the score to prove it.
No. Banks and transfer apps add their own margin. Use the forecast for the direction and size of the move, not as your final quote.