British pound to euro, from the ECB reference rate of Friday 6 November, re-anchored to the live market six times each working day.
EUR to GBP is forecast at £0.8341 for Mon 9 Nov. See the EUR to GBP forecast
Measured on the last three years of daily fixes, refreshed with every run.
Chance each fix beats the latest rate of €1.1988. A higher rate means more EUR for every GBP you convert. Model estimates, not promises.
Next fix forecasts roughly tie with a "no change" guess. Five sessions out they roughly tie, and the range caught 81% of outcomes against an 80% target.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | 1.1992 | 1.1988 | 0.00034 | Inside |
| Thu 5 Nov | 1.1982 | 1.1991 | 0.00095 | Inside |
| Wed 4 Nov | 1.1996 | 1.1982 | 0.00147 | Inside |
| Tue 3 Nov | 1.1965 | 1.1996 | 0.00317 | Outside |
| Mon 2 Nov | 1.1993 | 1.1964 | 0.00290 | Outside |
| Fri 30 Oct | 1.1965 | 1.1993 | 0.00283 | Inside |
Set a level and we'll tell you on the day the reference rate crosses it.
One British pound bought as little as €1.1488 on Fri 15 May and as much as €1.1996 on Tue 3 Nov, a swing of 4.3%. On a £10,000 transfer, that gap is worth about €509.
Our forecast for Monday 9 November is €1.1989 per British pound, with an 80% range of €1.1953 to €1.2024. The latest ECB reference rate was €1.1988 on Friday 6 November.
The five session path drifts up to €1.1990 by Friday 13 November, a change well inside the normal range, so treat it as steady. On this pair, five session forecasts currently roughly tie with a simple no change guess.
Friday 13 November has the best modelled chance of beating the latest fix, about 51%. That is an estimate from our calibrated ranges, not a promise.
Across 990 next fix forecasts the average miss was 0.00239, against 0.00239 for assuming no change, and the real rate landed inside our range 80% of the time.
The next fix starts from the latest market rate: before the fix we anchor to the live rate, after it to the fix itself. A drift is added only when the last 250 sessions show a statistically strong trend, which matters for crawling currencies like the lira and not for GBP to EUR. The range comes from a volatility model that reacts to recent swings, calibrated so 8 in 10 outcomes land inside it. Nothing about the direction is guessed: on daily data no model we tested beats the market's own price, and we publish the score to prove it.
No. Banks and transfer apps add their own margin. Use the forecast for the direction and size of the move, not as your final quote.