US dollar to Indonesian rupiah, from the ECB reference rate of Friday 6 November, re-anchored to the live market six times each working day.
Measured on the last three years of daily fixes, refreshed with every run.
Chance each fix beats the latest rate of Rp18,100. A higher rate means more IDR for every USD you convert. Model estimates, not promises.
Next fix forecasts roughly tie with a "no change" guess. Five sessions out they roughly tie, and the range caught 81% of outcomes against an 80% target.
| Date | Forecast | Actual | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | 18,069 | 18,100 | 31.0 | Inside |
| Thu 5 Nov | 18,129 | 18,069 | 60.3 | Outside |
| Wed 4 Nov | 18,137 | 18,129 | 8.4 | Inside |
| Tue 3 Nov | 18,136 | 18,137 | 0.7 | Inside |
| Mon 2 Nov | 18,148 | 18,136 | 12.4 | Inside |
| Fri 30 Oct | 18,143 | 18,148 | 4.7 | Inside |
Set a level and we'll tell you on the day the reference rate crosses it.
One US dollar bought as little as Rp17,476 on Wed 9 Sept and as much as Rp18,177 on Wed 28 Oct, a swing of 3.9%. On a $10,000 transfer, that gap is worth about Rp7,010,000.
Our forecast for Monday 9 November is Rp18,100 per US dollar, with an 80% range of Rp18,027 to Rp18,174. The latest ECB reference rate was Rp18,100 on Friday 6 November.
The five session path drifts up to Rp18,101 by Friday 13 November, a change well inside the normal range, so treat it as steady. On this pair, five session forecasts currently roughly tie with a simple no change guess.
Friday 13 November has the best modelled chance of beating the latest fix, about 51%. That is an estimate from our calibrated ranges, not a promise.
Across 990 next fix forecasts the average miss was 47.1, against 47.1 for assuming no change, and the real rate landed inside our range 81% of the time.
The next fix starts from the latest market rate: before the fix we anchor to the live rate, after it to the fix itself. A drift is added only when the last 250 sessions show a statistically strong trend, which matters for crawling currencies like the lira and not for USD to IDR. The range comes from a volatility model that reacts to recent swings, calibrated so 8 in 10 outcomes land inside it. Nothing about the direction is guessed: on daily data no model we tested beats the market's own price, and we publish the score to prove it.
No. Banks and transfer apps add their own margin. Use the forecast for the direction and size of the move, not as your final quote.