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USD to TRY forecast
for tomorrow and next week.

US dollar to Turkish lira, from the ECB reference rate of Friday 6 November, re-anchored to the live market six times each working day.

Latest · Fri 6 Nov₺50.15per US dollar
Next fix · Mon 9 Nov₺50.19▲ 0.07% · Leaning higher
In 5 sessions · Fri 13 Nov₺50.33▲ 0.34% vs latest
Next fix 80% range₺50.12 to ₺50.268 in 10 outcomes should land here

Last 10 sessions and the next 5

80% range shaded
50.4050.0849.76
ActualForecast80% range

Convert at the forecast rate

$
Next fix, Mon 9 Nov, USD to TRY₺50,187
Likely ₺50,118 to ₺50,256

Going the other way?

TRY to USD at the next fix works out to about $0.019925 per Turkish lira.

What moves USD to TRY.

Measured on the last three years of daily fixes, refreshed with every run.

The dollar's share1%Only 1% of the daily move follows the dollar against the majors. 99% is local: Turkish lira flows, its central bank and domestic news.
Typical daily move0.08%About ₺0.04 per US dollar on an ordinary day, or ₺406 on a $10,000 transfer.
Right now1.9× jumpierMoves are running above their one year normal, so the ranges are wider than usual. A 0.07% a day crawl is built into the path.
Event days aheadMon 9 NovUS payrolls lands in the Mon 9 Nov fix. Those fixes move 1.3× a normal day on average, and their ranges are sized for it.

The best day this week to convert.

Chance each fix beats the latest rate of ₺50.15. A higher rate means more TRY for every USD you convert. Model estimates, not promises.

Mon 9 NovAfter US jobs₺50.1950.12 to 50.2674%
Tue 10 Nov₺50.2250.14 to 50.3087%
Wed 11 Nov₺50.2650.19 to 50.3397%
Thu 12 Nov₺50.2950.22 to 50.36100%
Fri 13 NovBest odds₺50.3350.26 to 50.40100%

How we've done on this pair.

Next fix forecasts beat a "no change" guess. Five sessions out they beat it, and the range caught 86% of outcomes against an 80% target.

0.047Avg miss, next fixNo change guess: 0.050 · Beats it
82%Inside range, next fixTarget: 80% · 990 forecasts
0.129Avg miss, 5 sessions outNo change guess: 0.179 · Beats it
86%Inside range, 5 sessions outTarget: 80% · 986 forecasts
Most recent next fix forecasts against the actual rate
DateForecastActualMissRange
Fri 6 Nov50.0850.150.072Outside
Thu 5 Nov50.0650.050.009Inside
Wed 4 Nov50.0350.020.009Inside
Tue 3 Nov50.0050.000.005Inside
Mon 2 Nov49.9849.970.014Inside
Fri 30 Oct49.8749.950.077Outside
Forecast archive

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USD to TRY in the last six months

One US dollar bought as little as ₺45.55 on Fri 15 May and as much as ₺50.15 on Fri 6 Nov, a swing of 9.6%. On a $10,000 transfer, that gap is worth about ₺46,080.

Six month low₺45.55Fri 15 May
Six month high₺50.15Fri 6 Nov

Related forecasts

USD to EURNext fix €0.8957USD to GBPNext fix £0.7491USD to JPYNext fix ¥158.33USD to INRNext fix ₹93.92USD to AUDNext fix A$1.4554USD to CADNext fix C$1.4128USD to CHFNext fix CHF 0.8189USD to CNYNext fix CN¥6.6705

USD to TRY questions

What will USD to TRY be tomorrow?

Our forecast for Monday 9 November is ₺50.19 per US dollar, with an 80% range of ₺50.12 to ₺50.26. The latest ECB reference rate was ₺50.15 on Friday 6 November.

Will the US dollar rise against the Turkish lira next week?

The five session path drifts up to ₺50.33 by Friday 13 November. On this pair, five session forecasts currently beat a simple no change guess.

What is the best day this week to convert USD to TRY?

Friday 13 November has the best modelled chance of beating the latest fix, about 100%. That is an estimate from our calibrated ranges, not a promise.

How accurate are USD to TRY forecasts?

Across 990 next fix forecasts the average miss was 0.047, against 0.050 for assuming no change, and the real rate landed inside our range 82% of the time.

How is the USD to TRY forecast made?

The next fix starts from the latest market rate: before the fix we anchor to the live rate, after it to the fix itself. A drift is added only when the last 250 sessions show a statistically strong trend, which matters for crawling currencies like the lira and not for USD to TRY. The range comes from a volatility model that reacts to recent swings, calibrated so 8 in 10 outcomes land inside it. Nothing about the direction is guessed: on daily data no model we tested beats the market's own price, and we publish the score to prove it.

Is this the rate my bank will give me?

No. Banks and transfer apps add their own margin. Use the forecast for the direction and size of the move, not as your final quote.